Guinea’s long-standing “strong man” president Lansana Conte who died last week had not even been buried before a group of army officers seized power in a military coup. Guineans who suffered at the hands of Conte’s regime have widely welcomed the coup. The new junta has claimed that it is committed to stamping out corruption, and it promises that elections will be held in 2010, when they would next have been due if Conte had survived.
It is certainly possible that the new military government will act benevolently and be good for the country, but history indicates that this is unlikely. Between 1952 and 2000 there were 85 coups in Africa. In nearly every coup, the perpetrators claim that their aim is to improve public order and reduce corruption. In almost none of them has the country encountered improved economic performance in the period following the coup.
Numerous interests are now struggling for power in Guinea. Given that Guinea’s neighbours Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast have suffered from civil wars in recent years, there are grave fears of the same happening in Guinea. There are significant inter-ethnic rivalries, and any inter-ethnic conflicts can easily escalate into regional conflicts, given that members of the same ethnic groups live in neighbouring countries.