Now is the time for pundits to make their predictions for next year. Evan Newmark of the Wall Street Journal has made a number of predictions. He says that General Motors will file for bankruptcy protection by the end of April. Given the financial difficulties currently faced by the automotive industry, that seems to be a feasible outcome. Newmark also predicts that another 25% of all jobs on Wall Street will be cut by April.
The price of a barrel of oil will remain at around $30 for most of the year, long enough to lull consumers into thinking that cheap oil is here to stay, before prices start rising again at the end of the year, according to another of Newmark’s predictions. Again, this seems to be quite feasible. Newmark also predicts, controversially, that share prices will finish 2009 up by 30%, following a late year rally. Given the course of share prices in the past year, anything seems possible.
Newmark’s last prediction is that President Barack Obama will have the most successful inaugural year in US presidential history. While anything would seem to look good by comparison with George Bush’s current year, it seems to me that Obama will be facing a significant number of problems, from the economy to the role of the US military in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a false step anywhere could cause significant grief.