Kenya and Uganda have been identified alongside such countries as Zimbabwe, Iraq and Somalia as being “States under acute pressure in relation to conflict and state failure”, according to a global security report issued by the Institute for Public Policy Research, an organisation which describes itself as “the UK’s leading progressive think tank, producing cutting-edge research and innovative policy ideas for a just, democratic and sustainable world”. Twenty of the 27 weak or failing states identified in the report are in Africa.
The report identifies the main conflict and state failure risk factors as: a history of recent conflict in the location concerned; high levels of underdevelopment and poverty; high levels of inequality within the state; poor governance, manifested in corruption, crime, an incapacity to manage conflict peacefully, a rise of factionalised elites, loss of confidence in the legitimacy of the state, and/or institutionalised political exclusion; resource scarcity; easy access to small arms and light weapons; the presence of a youth bulge in the population; large or sudden movements of population; a sudden and/or severe economic downturn; widespread violations of human rights; high levels of food insecurity; and high level of vulnerability to the effects of climate change.
A number of recommendations for future UK security policy are made in the report. These include the addition of a conflict reduction goal to the existing Millennium Development Goals, the development of coherent political objectives for any future military interventions, strengthening of regional security operations, and improving readiness to deal with the threats of bioterrorism and disease.