According to Andrew Selth, as long as the Burmese armed forces remain united and loyal, it is difficult to see how the regime can be removed from power. There is no easy end in sight for Burma’s problems. “The US and EU countries have taken the hardest line, condemning the regime and imposing tough economic sanctions. Others… have pursued ‘constructive engagement’ in the hope that quiet diplomacy and trade would encourage political and economic reforms. The UN has tried to act as an honest broker, by promoting reconciliation between the regime and the opposition movement, led by Aung San Suu Kyi.”
None of these strategies have achieved their aims, and as indicated by the harsh sentences meted out to those who took part in last year’s pro-democracy demonstrations, the military junta have no intention of bowing to internal or external pressures. No-one seems interested in invading the country to effect “regime change”, so it is difficult to see any way in which things can get better for the people of Burma.
Selth argues that, “instead of looking for new ways to punish an entrenched and nationalistic regime, a more constructive approach might be to provide increased humanitarian aid to those communities, both inside and outside Burma, which desperately need help.” However, at the same time he admits that the regime makes the delivery of humanitarian aid very difficult, restricting access to those in greatest need and siphoning off foreign aid for its own benefit.