Somalia is either emerging from a period of two decades of conflict and insecurity, or simply re-arranging the deck chairs before plunging back into conflict and insecurity. In recent months the signs have been positive, with the adoption of a new constitution, appointment of members of parliament, election of a new president, appointment of a new prime minister, and now with the prime minister having appointed a ten-member cabinet.
Most of the talk is about the newly appointed foreign minister, Fowsiyo Yusuf Haji Adan, who is the first female ever to be appointed to that role. Another female, Maryan Qasim Ahmed, has been appointed minister of development and social affairs, after previously serving as women’s minister. Adan’s appointment is considered controversial partly because she is a woman and partly because she comes from Somaliland, which has been trying for many years to gain recognition as a country independent from Somalia.
Meanwhile, a fragile peace lingers in the country in the wake of the expulsion of al Shabaab fighters from Kismayu. Significant instability and risks of re-igniting conflict remain throughout the country. Strong pockets of support for al Shabaab remain, so guerrilla warfare is likely to continue for some time. There also remain risks associated with disaffected warlords who may feel that the new government is not delivering their fair share.