There is a slight relationship between climate and conflict in East Africa, according to the results of a study conducted by the US National Academy of Sciences. When temperatures are higher than normal, there is a 30% increase in the probability of violence occurring in the affected area, whereas when rainfall is higher than normal there is a 30% decrease in the probability of violence occurring in the affected area.
Intuitively the study’s findings make sense. When there is a drought, there is increased competition for food and resources, leading to higher incidences of cattle rustling and conflict. When the rains a plentiful, the competition for resources diminishes, and flooding makes it more difficult to engage in conflict. However, climate factors play a far less significant role in the incidence of conflict than socioeconomic, political and geographic factors.
The research team used data relating to more than 16,000 violent conflicts that occurred between 1990 and 2009 in Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda. The effect of climate variability on conflict risk differed from country to country, and the results did not provide any support for the apocalyptic predictions of “climate wars” that some have been making.