Now that the Amisom troops have “won” the war in Somalia against the al Shabaab insurgents, a suitable exit strategy has to be devised. Unfortunately it is far easier to win a war to oust tyrants than it is to establish a benevolent government in the wake of the ousting. One need only look at Iraq and Afghanistan for precedents of wars where it has proved immensely difficult for the conquerors to exit with grace.
When external military force is used to evict a regime from a country, the result usually seems to be a power vacuum which is attractive to all sorts of people with improper motives. Important policing and civil society institutions are often very weak or non-existent, leaving the people to struggle along with high levels of insecurity and corruption, and with dysfunctional marketplaces and social arrangements.
Somalia has recently appointed a new government and a new president, and hopes for the future are high. The country has a range of natural resources, and the Somali people have a reputation for resourcefulness, so there is every chance of significant economic growth, but there are also enormous challenges, particularly with regard to the power ambitions of the many well-armed warlords still operating in the country.