Sir Rod Eddington’s report on Melbourne’s transport needs, commissioned by the Victorian Government, has recently been released. It’s a very detailed report, and what it has to say about trains is especially interesting. The average growth in train usage over the past 4 years has been in excess of 10% after significant drops in the 1960s and 1970s and then slow growth in the 1980s and 1990s. Future growth is anticipated to be 6.6% per year. The average journey length has risen to around 18km and is expected to continue to rise.
There are already considerable strains on Melbourne’s train system. The average number of trains suffering “load breaches” in morning peak periods (defined as more than 798 passengers on a train with seating for 528) increased from 5 in 2001 to 25 in 2007, and 60% of these had loads in excess of 850 passengers, with many people left behind on platforms, unable to board. The average percentage of morning peak services arriving within 3 minutes of the scheduled time gradually fell from around 97% in January 2001 to around 89% in mid-2007. Over the same period customer satisfaction fell from around 72% to 60%.
The report predicts significant additional needs for the Northern and Caulfield rail lines, and it recommends a new east-west rail tunnel under the city. However, its assumptions for needs seem to be based on projected population growth rates and do not seem to take into account the likely need for substantial reduction in the usage of private transport in order to meet carbon emission targets.