The Kenyan Army’s incursion into Somalia seems to have ground to a halt, suggesting that earlier reports of substantial progress being made against al Shabaab were overly optimistic. Kenyan forces that had been reported as quickly penetrating Somalia and taking Bilis Qooqaani en route to Kismayo via Afmadow are now reported, more than a month later, as still being in Bilis Qooqaani, without any further significant progress towards Afmadow.
The campaign which was meant to deal a swift and fatal to al Shabaab is now looking like a slow expensive campaign, with costs to Kenya being very high. The factors which have retarded the operation are: lack of finances, differences over whether Somalia should be divided into autonomous regions or remain a single country, differences over whether al Shabaab should be engaged in dialogue, and the ambivalence of Somalia’s president.
Kenya is now seeking to change its direction, and have the Kenyan forces subsumed into Amisom, the African Union Mission in Somalia, which has so far consisted of Ugandan and Burundian troops. The big advantage of Amisom is that the United Nations foots the bill, providing food, accommodation, medical evacuations, soldiers’ allowances, and operational costs, as well as paying for the purchase and maintenance of military equipment.