The Kenyan “war on terror”, involving fighting al Shabaab in Somalia, is only a couple of weeks old, but already questions are being asked about what happens after Kenya “wins”. It is the same question that arose in respect of the US-led interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. Experience shows that, if the bad guys are beaten, there is very little likelihood of good guys just materialising to take their place and everyone living happily ever after.
The most likely scenario, based on recent experience, is that al Shabaab will become an underground organisation, thriving on guerrilla warfare and terrorist attacks. In the absence of a viable dignified exit strategy, the Kenyan Army will either have to beat a hasty retreat, leaving Somali citizens to their fate and allowing an al Shabaab resurgence, or continue with a long occupation, which would result in huge numbers of casualties and vast expense.
The current Kenyan strategy seems to be to create a buffer zone. This does not really solve anything, but hopefully keeps the bad guys further away from Kenyan territory. However, given the number of al Shabaab cells comprised of Kenyan citizens in Kenya, the hope of isolating al Shabaab and keeping its threats of violence distant from Kenya seems to be a forlorn one.