In 1960, there were 1 billion people in the industrialised world and 2 billion people in the developing world, according to Hans Rosling in a talk given at TED@Cannes last month. The large gap between the industrialised world and the developing world led to a mindset that the world consists of the West and the Rest, but it is now time to upgrade that taxonomy. In the past 50 years, some 4 billion people have been added to the world’s population – the world’s population has more than doubled.
The 1 billion in the West have continued to increase in wealth. The most successful 1 billion of the developing countries have become the emerging economies. There are still 2 billion people at the bottom of the pile who are struggling to find enough money for basic necessities, but there are now 3 billion people in the middle who are also becoming part of emerging economies. The distance between the poorest and the richest is wider than ever.
What is going to happen by 2050? The most successful emerging economies will catch up with the West. If appropriate technology is created in response to climate change, the middle 3 billion will also grow wealthier. Because of population growth, the bottom 2 billion will become 4 billion. Population growth will continue unless the countries at the bottom can higher rates of child survival, because there is a strong correlation between child survival rates and decreased birth rates.