The best minds in the best institutions generally get it wrong when trying to predict the future, according to Ian Goldin in a talk given at the TED conference in July. Before the global financial crisis hit, the IMF and other institutions established to think about the future were unable to see the crisis coming, as were over 20,000 economists. Globalisation is getting more complex, and as change is becoming more rapid, the future is becoming even more unpredictable.
In the coming years technology will provide many fantastic new opportunities in fields such as computing, regenerative medicine, and genetics – but will these technologies be available only to the super-rich? As populations shrink in wealthier countries, those countries will be seeking migrants to fill their workforces.
There are two “Achilles’ heels” to increasing globalisation: the growing inter-country inequality, and the increasing complexity, in which what happens in one place very quickly affects everything else, giving rise to the risk of systemic shock. Risks include the collapse in biodiversity, climate change, pandemics, and financial crises. As a result of globalisation, this could be our best century ever, or it could be our worst.