In a recent talk given at the US State Department, Hans Rosling presented some data which challenges preconceptions. In 1950, developed countries tended to have a high life expectancy and a low population in terms of children per woman, whereas developing countries tended to have a low life expectancy and high population. In the past 50 years most countries have moved towards a high life expectancy and a low population, but the bottom billion are still being left behind.
Rosling argues that it no longer makes sense to divide the world into “developing” and “developed” countries, because there is so much difference in what is happening between countries and even within countries. Some countries at the bottom of the heap such as Afghanistan and Somalia are in the midst of war. Other countries traditionally thought of as “developing” are actually the ones which provided the bail-out in response to the global economic crisis.
Although there are high rates of HIV infection in Africa as a whole, there is enormous variation between countries and even within countries. DR Congo is a war-torn country, yet has a low rate of infection. In Tanzania, the richest quintile has a far higher infection rate than the poorest quintile. In Kenya, there is enormous variation between provinces. Thus there is no clear link between HIV and war or poverty.