Month: April 2008

Categories
Books

Knowledge building and leadership

Building a house of cardsThere are five components of leadership which represent independent but mutual reinforcing forces for positive change, according to Michael Fullan in his book Leading in a Culture of Change. The five components are: moral purpose, understanding change, relationship building, knowledge creation and sharing, and coherence making. All effective leaders also possess the personal characteristics which the author labels “the energy-enthusiasm-hopefulness constellation”. Leaders who possess all of the five core components of leadership engender long-term commitment in their followers, and the result is that more good things happen and fewer bad things happen.

These insights are described in the first chapter. I found the rest of the book rather dry, but mercifully brief. Most of the author’s examples are drawn from the author’s experience with school systems, which he assumes can be extrapolated to other types of organisations; however it seems to me that the cultural gap between the typical business and the typical school is just too great to make such assumptions. Further, the book tends to equate leadership with knowledge building; this seems to be more relevant in a school environment where the whole purpose of the system is to build knowledge, rather than in a typical business environment.

On the whole, I think that the author’s solution for leading in a culture of change, as described in the book, is not sufficient. The author is critical of visionary leaders, but his vague notions of “moral purpose” and aim of making “more good things happen and fewer bad things happen” are not sufficient for coping with a complex and rapidly changing environment. Organisations which focus only on incremental improvements will be swamped by organisations in which leaders can choose a clear path for future success and inspire their followers to align themselves with that path.

Categories
Poverty

Poverty is easier to create than to solve

Basket CaseZimbabwe now has an inflation rate greater than 100,000%, an unemployment rate in excess of 80%, malnutrition in 45% of the population, and a life expectancy of just 37 years (compared with a life expectancy of 62 in 1985). On almost every measure the quality of life has been steadily declining for people in Zimbabwe since Robert Mugabe became president in 1987, and in recent years things have been spirally completely out of control. It’s not hard to find the reasons for the slide into poverty. The difficult question is, how can the country climb out of poverty from here?

According to the BBC, there is plenty of work to do. Roads and sewers are in need of repair. Power supplies need to be reconnected. The countless thousands of people who have been abused, rendered homeless, and left to starve will need to be housed and rehabilitated. The corruption which has become an endemic part of daily life will need to be rooted out. Confidence will need to be restored in government institutions, the army and the police force.

The problems are very large indeed, and the human capital available for dealing with the issues has been severely depleted. Millions of those who are wealthier, better educated, and better skilled in coping with problems have escaped from the country to earn a living elsewhere under less repressive conditions. Most of the farmers with the skills needed for providing sufficient food for the people have been chased out of the country and had their property seized and rendered worthless. Unfortunately, poverty is much easier to create than to solve.

Categories
Future

Was Malthus right?

HungryTwo hundred years ago, English political economist Thomas Malthus came up with a theory which suggested that population growth would lead to food shortages and social upheaval. Since then, the world’s population has increased from around 1 billion to around 6.6 billion, and the world’s food production has increased even more, so that there is still more than enough to feed everybody. But in the last year a global food crisis has been emerging. Wheat prices have gone up 120%. In just two months rice prices have increased by 75%. According to the International Monetary Fund, the reasons include:

  • Higher demand for more and better food from increasingly wealthy people in China and India;
  • Demand for biofuels is diverting crop production from food supply;
  • Droughts and floods have reduced food supply;
  • Competing land uses have reduced the land available for growing food;
  • Food stockpiles have been run down, so there is a reduced capacity for dealing with shortages;
  • Speculators have been hoarding supplies.

Shortages have led to famines and food riots in a number of countries, and Haiti’s government was toppled last weekend after riots over the prices of rice and beans. Does this mean that Malthusian times are now upon us? Probably not, but it’s difficult to respond in a way which solves the problems. The easy answer is to send free food to the affected countries, but that undercuts the livelihoods of local food producers, removing their incentive to plant crops, which in turn leads to an even deeper crisis in the following year.

Categories
Present

Time cures bad votes

CountingWhat do you do if you’ve been the president of a country for 20 years and you want to stay that way for life, but you’ve been told that, despite your best efforts at repressing the opposition and harassing people who vote for them, you’ve been voted out of office? The latest creative way of handling this situation, according to Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, is to delay the announcement of the results and instruct the electoral commission to recount the votes until they come out in your favour.

Whilst in the good old days the results could be rigged simply by ignoring what the actual votes said and announcing a tally which gave the incumbent a strong majority, things are a bit more difficult this time around because, in an effort to appear transparent, the results of counting were posted outside each counting centre. A simple act of addition makes it obvious what the tally should come to. So how do you address this problem? You need to get hold of the containers which hold the votes, replace unfavourable votes with favourable ones, recount them to discover that the tally actually comes out in your favour, then punish the fraudulent behaviour of the electoral officials who counted the votes initially. However, this process takes time.

This morning’s news is that the Zimbabwe High Court has rejected a bid by the opposition for an order requiring the electoral commission to release the results of the presidential election. What else could the judge have done? He would certainly have been subject to reprisals. On Saturday leaders from nearby countries had an emergency meeting to discuss the impasse, but failed to resolve anything. What could they do without involving cost and risk to themselves?

Categories
Past

Justin Martyr

MartyrAccording to the Catholic calendar, today is the feast day for Justin of Caesarea, best known as Justin Martyr. He was born in Samaria around the year 110AD (only a matter of years after the last of Jesus’s original disciples died), and he was executed in Rome around 165AD because of his refusal to give up his beliefs (hence the name “Martyr”). Although he was not the first person to write in defence of the Christian faith, his writings are the earliest ones which have survived.

In response to scepticism about the resurrection, he said: “And to any thoughtful person would anything appear more incredible, than… to say that it was possible that from a small drop of human seed bones and sinews and flesh be formed into a shape such as we see? …If… one were to show you human seed and a picture of a man, and were to say with confidence that from such a substance such a being could be produced, would you believe before you saw the actual production? …In the same way, then, you are now incredulous because you have never seen a dead man rise again. But as at first you would not have believed it possible that such persons could be produced from the small drop, and yet now you see them thus produced, so also judge ye that it is not impossible that the bodies of men, after they have been dissolved, and like seeds resolved into earth, should in God’s appointed time rise again and put on incorruption.”

Justin’s largest work, “The First Apology”, was addressed to Emperor Antoninus Pius (AD138-161), in an attempt to persuade him to stop the arbitrary persecution of Christians. The work explains what Christians believe and why Christian practices are beneficial to, rather than harmful to, good government. In his conclusion, Justin says: “And if these things seem to you to be reasonable and true, honour them; but if they seem nonsensical, despise them as nonsense, and do not decree death against those who have done no wrong, as you would against enemies.”

Categories
Faith

Walking on water

Walking on waterMatthew 14 records an incident when the disciples were caught in a storm in the middle of the sea when suddenly they saw Jesus walking towards them on the water:

Peter said, “Lord, if it really is you, command me to come to you on the water.” He said, “Come!” Peter stepped out of the boat, and walked on the water towards Jesus. But he saw the strong wind and got scared and started to sink, crying out, “Lord, save me!” Jesus stretched out his hand and grabbed him, saying, “Little-faith, why did you doubt?”

It’s hard to imagine anyone having sufficient courage to step out onto the water in the middle of a storm in the way Peter did. It was a challenge to do something so courageous and so far beyond his own capabilities that he couldn’t possibly have succeeded without God’s help. The downside risk was pretty deep. Maybe there were sharks below the water. Maybe he wasn’t that great at swimming. Maybe his friends and family were watching and he would have been totally embarrassed to fall.

But if you don’t have the courage to take the risk when the call from God comes to step out and do something risky and dangerous, you never get to find out what the rest of your life was meant to be like. Somehow we’ve been sold the lie that being a follower of Jesus is about playing it safe, when the complete opposite is true. How can you sincerely say you have faith in Jesus if you have never experienced his miraculous power rescuing you from a situation where you couldn’t save yourself?

Categories
Books

Focusing outside the church walls

Externally focusedExternally focused churches are quick to partner with community agencies, they are open to building new relationships, and they flood their neighbourhoods with practical compassion, according to Rick Rusaw and Eric Swanson in their book The Externally Focused Church. According to the authors, the characteristics of externally focused churches are as follows:

  • They are inwardly strong but outwardly focused.
  • They integrate good deeds and good news into the life of the church.
  • They value impact and influence in the community more than attendance.
  • They seek to be salt, light and leaven in the community.
  • They see themselves as the “soul” of the community.
  • They would be greatly missed by the community if they left.

In a culture which is increasingly willing to question the proposition that Christianity is “good” for society, it is more necessary than ever for Christians to be living lives which are consistent with the message which they preach. Many outsiders feel that they already know the “message” of Christianity, and they are not willing to convert to a right-wing political belief system which espouses a legalistic approach to life. Some churches are recognising that the only way to connect with such people is by demonstrating practical Christianity, rather than just talking about it. This book makes an important contribution to the field.

Categories
Poverty

Urbanisation and poverty reduction

UrbanisationAccording to Stewart Brand at a TED presentation given in 2006, projected population figures show that as at 2015, the ten largest cities in the world are anticipated to be Tokyo (26.4 million), Mumbai (26.1 million), Lagos (23.2 million), Dhaka (21.1 million), Sao Paolo (20.4 million), Karachi (19.2 million), Mexico City (19.2 million), New York (17.4 million), Jakarta (17.3 million) and Calcutta (17.3 million). Global urbanisation is now in full swing, with 70 million new people moving to live in cities each year. Villages are being deserted.

Life in villages is typically very difficult, with limited opportunities for economic growth, and the only work available being labour-intensive with little reward. Life in the city is seen as more exciting, with greater opportunities for economic improvement; however most people move to squatter cities rather than to places which might be regarded as more desirable. Stewart Brand says “These are not really people pressed by poverty; they are people getting out of poverty as fast as they can.”

Brand says that one billion people now live in squatter cities, and two billion more are expected, but that is good news rather than bad. Cities have lower birth rates, and they are wealth creators, helping billions of people to climb out of poverty. It’s an interesting perspective, and it seems to be true of cities such as Mumbai, but from my own observations urbanisation does not seem to be causing any improvement in conditions in major African cities because there are too many other factors biased towards keeping people impoverished.

Categories
Future

Melbourne’s train system

Crowded TrainSir Rod Eddington’s report on Melbourne’s transport needs, commissioned by the Victorian Government, has recently been released. It’s a very detailed report, and what it has to say about trains is especially interesting. The average growth in train usage over the past 4 years has been in excess of 10% after significant drops in the 1960s and 1970s and then slow growth in the 1980s and 1990s. Future growth is anticipated to be 6.6% per year. The average journey length has risen to around 18km and is expected to continue to rise.

There are already considerable strains on Melbourne’s train system. The average number of trains suffering “load breaches” in morning peak periods (defined as more than 798 passengers on a train with seating for 528) increased from 5 in 2001 to 25 in 2007, and 60% of these had loads in excess of 850 passengers, with many people left behind on platforms, unable to board. The average percentage of morning peak services arriving within 3 minutes of the scheduled time gradually fell from around 97% in January 2001 to around 89% in mid-2007. Over the same period customer satisfaction fell from around 72% to 60%.

The report predicts significant additional needs for the Northern and Caulfield rail lines, and it recommends a new east-west rail tunnel under the city. However, its assumptions for needs seem to be based on projected population growth rates and do not seem to take into account the likely need for substantial reduction in the usage of private transport in order to meet carbon emission targets.

Categories
Present

Grimly holding on

On the Cliff’s EdgeIf you’ve been the autocratic ruler of a country for 28 years and you’ve become accustomed to everyone following your orders, and you thought you had arranged things such that you would win comfortably in the latest elections, but a simple act of addition applied to the numbers released outside polling centres indicates that you are not going to win, what do you do? The answer according to President Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe seems to be: arrange for the electoral commission to delay releasing the official results, preferably forever.

Zimbabwe has descended into a state of farce in the wake of the electoral commission’s refusal to announce the results of the elections, presumably at the behest of Mugabe. The next stage after farce is violence, and we can expect to see that escalating in the next week as Mugabe’s Zanu-PF thugs seek to maintain power for the old despot by means of force in a kind of anticipatory coup, now that the people have voted him out of office.

Andy Stanley once said that any use of power for the purpose of maintaining that power is an abuse of power. It is hard to imagine a more clear-cut illustration of that principle than Mugabe. The Zimbabwe High Court now has the difficult choice between dispensing justice and thereby incurring the likelihood of violent retaliation from Mugabe’s henchmen, or denying justice. Either way, it is difficult to imagine an outcome which avoids the threatening storms of brutality.