On Saturday, the runner-up in this month’s Kenyan presidential election filed papers with Kenya’s Supreme Court contesting the declared result of the election. While some are interpreting his actions as a failure to admit defeat, there are some odd circumstances surrounding the declared result:
- Uhuru Kenyatta’s first-round victory was well outside of what was predicted by polls
- If there was a serious attempt at vote rigging, the riggers would have had to arrange for the failure of the equipment designed to prevent vote rigging; that equipment did in fact fail
- There was widespread vote rigging at the last election
- If Kenyatta was in fact guilty of the charges currently lying against him at the International Criminal Court, vote rigging would be entirely in character
So far there has been no persuasive evidence to suggest that there was anything significantly wrong with the conduct of the elections. Even if there was electoral misconduct, there would be substantial problems with any attempts to change the present situation. A court order for a re-run of the election would increase the likelihood of tribal violence, and would certainly result in even greater losses of productivity. Most Kenyans are probably hoping that the court proceedings do not result in a repeat of the election.