Category: Future

According to research by the Barna Group reported in the book UnChristian by David Kinnaman and Gabe Lyons, 38% of non-Christians in the US aged 14 to 29 have a “bad impression” of Christianity, compared with fewer than 20% ten years ago. There are significant cultural differences between the US and Australia, but at least some of the negative impression of Christianity is probably rubbing off in Australia.

Are non-Christians being offended by the Cross? Are they being offended by the overwhelming generosity of Christians, their willingness to serve the poor whatever the cost, their enthusiasm in identifying with the marginalised and oppressed, their desire to bring justice, mercy, forgiveness and healing wherever they go? Unfortunately not. It seems that non-Christians see Christians as being anti-homosexual, hypocritical, judgmental and too involved in politics.

Where does the future lie? It seems to me that the identification of Christianity with reactionary conservative political views is something which has come to the fore only in recent years, and it is likely to pass when the church refocuses on the mission of Jesus, rather than right-wing politics. However, in the mean time considerable damage is being done to the cause of Christ. People are choosing not to become followers of Jesus because the image of Jesus is so poorly reflected in those who claim to be his followers.

As reported on Monday Morning Insight, Elevation Church gave a reverse offering last Sunday to encourage people to be generous. Instead of taking up a normal offering, they gave attenders the same amount of money as is normally received each week, and told them that they couldn’t spend the money on themselves, they couldn’t give it back to the church, and they had to tell the church what the did with the money.

Churches are often very careful with money, treating it as a scarce resource. A lot of emphasis is place on good stewardship and making sure that every dollar is used wisely. Much time and effort is devoted to fundraising activities. But what could the church look like in the future if members were encouraged to be extravagantly generous, rather than “careful” with money? Elevation Church is trying to create a culture of generosity.

When Jesus met the rich young man, he didn’t tell the man to set up an elaborate trust to make sure he received maximum value for all his money. Jesus told him to sell everything and give it away to the poor. This seems to me to be more like extravagant generosity than careful stewardship. Imagine how significant the church’s influence would be if members would only open the purse strings and let the generosity flow freely.

“Africa is not a great place and may not be for a long time to come, simply because the actions and spirit of most of its leaders point towards a pathetic future not a destiny of prosperity.” That’s what a biting editorial in yesterday’s Ugandan Daily Monitor says, on the occasion of Ugandan Independence Day. The article goes on to say that about $148 billion per year – a quarter of total African GDP – is lost each year to theft and corruption. (This figure is attributed to the Stolen Assets Recovery Initiative, although it seems to come from an African Union report dating from 2002.)

The editorial goes on to say: “The loot is safely and profitably banked or invested overseas – with full awareness of western governments and donor agencies – at the expense of social programmes including healthcare, education, infrastructural development and poverty alleviation.” And the conclusion: “That is why one must be either very naïve or dishonest to still speak of a bright future for this continent as was envisaged at the dawn of independence.”

The conclusion is perhaps overly pessimistic, but it is certainly true that as a simple matter of economics, if informal “transaction costs” attributable to corruption exceed profit margins, it is impossible to trade profitably. In other words, if the level of corruption is sufficiently high, widespread poverty is a guaranteed result. Development cannot succeed without driving out corruption.

Australia’s government research organisation CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology have released projections showing the expected impact of climate change in Australia. At present, Melbourne has an average of 9.1 days per year with a temperature above 35°C. By 2030, this number is expected to increase to 11.4 days, and by 2070 it is expected to be between 12 and 26 days, depending on the extent of global carbon emissions between now and then.

Rainfall is expected to decrease in some parts of Australia and increase in others. There is a significant range of uncertainties involved, but in Melbourne the expectation is for a decrease in rainfall in all seasons of the year. The most likely scenario for Melbourne for the year 2030 depicts a rainfall decrease of around 2% in Summer and Autumn, a decrease of around 4% in Winter, and a decrease of around 8% in Spring.

The number of drought months in eastern Australia is likely to increase by up to 20% by 2030 and by up to 40% by 2070. The drought outlook for south-western Australia is much worse. The fire season is likely to lengthen, and the number of extreme fire danger days is likely to increase. Sea levels are predicted to rise between 18 and 59cm. The proportion of tropical cyclones is likely to increase, but the total number of cyclones may decrease. Hail risk may increase over the south-east coast.

According to an article in yesterday’s issue of The Age, the population of Melbourne is growing at a significantly faster rate than what has been allowed for by the government, and new figures show that the population will be 5 million soon after 2030, an increase of 1.2 million over the next 25 years. The population of the State of Victoria is growing by more than 1400 people per week.

What issues arise as a result of increased population? Firstly, there will be an increase in urban sprawl. Secondly, there will have to be an increase in population density, probably through more high-rise living. Then there will be issues associated with increased traffic congestion, added strain on public transport resources, added strain on water resources, and even greater pressure on housing and accommodation prices.

Although many aspects of the future are impossible to discern, the changes which are happening to Melbourne are gradual and predictable. The question we need to be asking ourselves is: How can the church most effectively respond to those changes and position itself for serving people in the future?

We’re now two weeks into the AFL football finals season, and the Grand Final is less than a fortnight away. Four teams are still in the competition, and if your team is one of them you have a licence to dream about the glory which might be yours this year. The big day will come, and the big men will fly. Deeds of courage, athleticism and sportsmanship will be done, and one team will get to celebrate victory at the end of the day.

Then, once it’s all over, it will be time to start preparing for next year. If your team’s already out of the competition, you’re probably already looking ahead to next year. The problem is that, once the mighty deeds have been done, and once the cheers have died away, the prize doesn’t seem to have much lasting value. No matter how well you did this year, everything is still up for grabs next year.

That’s how it is with most things in life. You look forward and imagine in your mind how great things will be when you achieve a particular milestone. Then, once you have achieved it, it no longer adds any purpose to your life, because it is no longer something you can look forward to. The reward is more often to be found in the heat of battle, rather than in the celebration of victory at the end.  Car’n the Pies!

According to the UNDP Human Development Trends report, around 19% of the world’s population was living in “poverty” in the year 2000, with an income below US$1 per day. According to current trends, the world is on track to meet Millennium Development Goal of reducing the precentage of people living in poverty to below 15% by 2015.

However, this improvement arises largely because of improvements in Asia. At present, the position is not improving in Africa. In 1970, 86% of the people living in poverty in the world were in Asia, 3% in Latin America, and 11% in Africa. In 2000, 60% of the people living in poverty were in Asia, 35% in Africa and 4% in Latin America. If current trends continue, by 2015, 68% of people living in poverty will be in Africa, 25% in Asia and 5% in Latin America.

One of the problems of the definition of “poverty” used by this analysis is that the bar has been set at a very low level. If the Australian poverty line was used as the basis for the analysis, then more than 85% of the people in the world would be living in poverty. Poverty isn’t something that will be “made history” anytime soon. It’s something that requires long-term systematic attention from those in the world who have an income significantly exceeding $1 per day.

Canadian futurist Thomas Homer-Dixon was in Melbourne a couple of days ago. He says that the world faces five major stresses: different population growth rates for rich and poor countries; energy scarcity; environmental damage in poor countries; climate change; and the widening gap between rich and poor. These combined stresses result in substantial social turmoil.

According to a newspaper report, Homer-Dixon made an observation which I find very interesting. He said, “The problem is you are getting a huge number of these very smart people who could be helping us solve these problems who have no connection to the rest of humanity because they are so wealthy.” In other words, he seems to be suggesting that increasing wealth actually leads to dislocation from other people. The world’s problems tend to fall off your radar screen when you no longer face the same daily challenges as the vast mass of humanity.

It seems to me that, in an age when the poorest people in Australia and other wealthy nations still have an income five times as high as the median global income, we have become completely blind as to what life is like for the majority of people. If we’re going to address the crises which the world is facing, we have to get out of our cosy couches and start learning more about what is going on in the world.

According to Proverbs, By justice a king gives a country stability, but one who is greedy for bribes tears it down. Transparency International Kenya has recently released its Kenya Bribery Index 2007, a detailed report on the extent of bribery in the country. If the report is accurate, it is quite easy to see how the culture of bribery distorts the economy enough to keep the majority of Kenyans extremely poor.

Kenyans encounter bribery in 54% of their interactions with institutions, and the average person pays 2.5 bribes per year. The most common reason for a bribe was law enforcement, and the organisation most prone to bribery was the Kenya Police Force. Second on the list was the Transport Licensing Board, which helps to explain why a high percentage of drivers seem to have obtained licenses without passing a driving test.

More than 75% of the clients of the following organisations encountered bribery: Immigration Department, CDF Office (Constituency Development Fund), Transport Licensing Board, and Parliament. The largest bribes were typically bribes that employees had to pay to be given jobs. The people hardest hit by corruption are those who are least able to afford the bribes.

When travelling to the city, I usually catch a train before the morning peak hour, and I usually travel home after the evening peak hour, but in the past week I’ve caught peak hour trains twice, and it wasn’t a pleasant experience. Our road are too congested; our public transport is overloaded: what does the future hold for the city of Melbourne? According to an article in yesterday’s Age newspaper, no vision means no future.

The Victorian State Government does in fact have a strategy document entitled Melbourne 2030: Planning for Sustainable Growth. It says that Melbourne will grow by up to 1 million people over the next 25 years. Part of the strategy is “better management of metropolitan growth”, but I wonder whether this isn’t like a policeman standing beside a road waving at traffic as it goes past, but not actually directing the traffic.

I also wonder how Melbourne’s churches are planning to cater for the 33% increase in the number of people in the city. I wonder how much strategic planning and investment is going into starting new churches in the growth corridors. What is the best way to serve the people in the new housing estates? How the church be an active participant in creating the new communities?