Category: Present

The laws of supply and demand are once again causing anxiety for African coffee farmers. The prices of coffee, as a commodity, go up or down depending on demand. When demand exceeds the available supply, coffee prices go up, but when the available supply is greater than the demand, prices fall. This year, decreased demand from Europe means lower earnings for coffee farmers in Africa.

Prices have fallen from $320 per 50kg bag of coffee in January this year down to $140 per bag by the end of October, reflecting the drop in demand from Europe. Ugandan growers are likely to be worst affected, because the lower prices are compounded for them by the poor crops this year resulting from drought. Kenyan growers have significantly increased production, so that the lower prices are cushioned for them by the ability to sell greater quantities.

Rwandan coffee producers expect to sell 24,000 tonnes this year, up from 16,000 last year, with a small increase in earnings despite the depressed prices. Tanzania is aiming for a significant increase in its coffee production over the next few years. However, the current low prices are largely caused by a bumper crop from Brazil. If global coffee supplies continue to increase, the future trend for the price seems downward.

Somalia is either emerging from a period of two decades of conflict and insecurity, or simply re-arranging the deck chairs before plunging back into conflict and insecurity. In recent months the signs have been positive, with the adoption of a new constitution, appointment of members of parliament, election of a new president, appointment of a new prime minister, and now with the prime minister having appointed a ten-member cabinet.

Most of the talk is about the newly appointed foreign minister, Fowsiyo Yusuf Haji Adan, who is the first female ever to be appointed to that role. Another female, Maryan Qasim Ahmed, has been appointed minister of development and social affairs, after previously serving as women’s minister. Adan’s appointment is considered controversial partly because she is a woman and partly because she comes from Somaliland, which has been trying for many years to gain recognition as a country independent from Somalia.

Meanwhile, a fragile peace lingers in the country in the wake of the expulsion of al Shabaab fighters from Kismayu. Significant instability and risks of re-igniting conflict remain throughout the country. Strong pockets of support for al Shabaab remain, so guerrilla warfare is likely to continue for some time. There also remain risks associated with disaffected warlords who may feel that the new government is not delivering their fair share.

It is now more than 15 months since South Sudan achieved its independence from Sudan, as what was supposed to be the final step in a peaceful resolution of north-south wars which had plagued the country for more than 20 years. However, the peace agreement was not explicit on the boundaries between north and south, and over the past year there has been conflict over the border areas of Abyei and Southern Kordofan.

An African Union panel consisting of former presidents from South Africa, Nigeria and Burundi, has been trying to mediate, requiring Sudan and South Sudan to implement temporary agreements on the Abyei region within two weeks, and to negotiate and resolve outstanding issues within six weeks. Some progress has already been made, with agreement being reached on the fee to be paid by the South for transporting oil through Sudan to the coast.

It is generally proposed that the people of Abyei should be able to vote on whether they become part of South Sudan or remain part of Sudan. However, the issue is complicated by nomadic Misseriya people who live in the Abyei area for six months of each year. The African Union panel has ruled that only the Misseriya people residing in Abyei when the referendum is held in October next year will be eligible to vote.

Colonel Muammar Gaddafi met an unpleasant end just over a year ago, but what has happened to his wife, his eight children, and his close associates? Safiya Gaddafi, his wife and mother of seven of his children, has been given refuge in Algeria on “humanitarian” grounds. She is living privately in a villa near Algiers, together with her daughter Aisha and recently-born granddaughter, also named Safiya.

Three of Gaddafi’s sons were killed during the conflict. Mutassim, who served as Libya’s National Security Adviser, was killed at about the same time as his father. Saif al-Arab, who was a military commander in the Libyan Army, was killed during a NATO bombing. Khamis, who was commander of the elite Khamis Brigade, was also killed during the conflict.

Gaddafi’s eldest son Muhammad, the former head of the Libyan Olympic Committee, is living in exile in Algeria. Saif al-Islam, Gaddafi’s second son, is still in custody in Libya. Saadi, who had a brief career as a professional soccer player, and who is the subject of an Interpol arrest warrant, is living in exile in Niger. Hannibal is believed to be living in Algeria.

Among Gaddafi’s former associates, the former intelligence chief Abdullah al-Sanussi is currently in custody in Libya. Musa Kusa, former foreign intelligence chief, defected during the uprising and now lives in Qatar. The whereabouts of Musa Ibrahim, the former government spokesman, are unknown.

Somalia has a new government, and the al Shabaab insurgents have been driven out of Kismayu, so many in Somalia are hopeful of a bright future. However, because of poor rains, many parts of Somalia are suffering from lack of water and a shortage of food. A survey of some 1,800 households conducted by Oxfam has revealed that more than 70% are worried about food supplies, given that recent rainfall has been less than normal.

The September crops in Somalia rely on substantial rain which normally falls between April and June. The lack of rainfall, compounded by recent insecurity, is likely to lead to a lean harvest, and almost half of the people surveyed are already accustomed to skipping meals to make the food last. In the recent past the country has become dependent on food imports, and relief efforts have been impeded by conflict.

In Kenya, there is some pressure for Somali refugees to return home as soon as possible. Kenya has been hosting the world’s largest refugee camp at Dadaab for many years now, and many Kenyans would like the camp to be wound up. Some, but not all, of the refugees are keen to return home, but there are lingering questions over security, the stability of the new government, and the availability of water and food.

When former guerrilla commander Yoweri Museveni became president of Uganda in 1986 following several years of war, he told his new coalition partners that he would remain president for just four years. His National Resistance Movement established a “no-party” democracy, and the transition to peaceful government began. However, at the end of those four years more time was needed for the smooth transition, so the interim parliament passed a bill to extend the arrangements for a further five years.

At the end of the five years, the 1995 Constitution came into force. Elections were held the following year, with Museveni standing for election as president and winning. In 2001 further elections were held, and Museveni was re-elected after vigorously and not always peacefully contested campaigning. He announced that this term of presidency would be his last, as required by the Constitution.

However, as 2006 approached, Museveni changed his mind and decided to stand again. The Constitution was amended to allow for more than two consecutive terms, and after further contested elections in February 2006 he was elected president for a third term. In February 2011 he stood again, winning a fourth term after hotly disputed election results. One day his reign will end, but at present there are no signs of him stepping down before seeking a fifth term in 2016.

After a build-up of several months, the Kenyan Army quickly seized Kismayu in Somalia from al Shabaab forces last week. The operation was much quicker than expected, and the resistance was less than anticipated. The Kenya Defence Forces had conducted manoeuvres to make the al Shabaab fighters think that the attack was going to come from land, so that almost all of their forces were concentrated in such a direction. The main attack was then carried out by beach landings from the sea, starting at 2am on Friday.

Al Shabaab does not have the strength to fend off an attack on the scale of Friday’s operation, but that does not mean that the organisation is a spent force. As the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have demonstrated in the past decade, it is relatively straightforward for a well-equipped intervening army to win the war, but that does not prevent the indefinite continuation of guerrilla activity by fanatical insurgents.

The Amisom forces and the new Somali government now have the difficult task of attempting to provide stable government and security in Kismayu, as well as in the rest of Somalia. It is said that a team of experienced insurgents is still in Kismaya, ready to start a campaign of bombing and assassinations.

Burundi is a small landlocked country of 28,000 square kilometres, about the same size as Rwanda, sharing borders with Rwanda to the north, Tanzania to the east and south, and Democratic Republic of Congo to the west. The country has a population of just under 9 million, but it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Its south-eastern border is on the second-largest freshwater lake in the world, Lake Tanganyika, and yet the country’s capital city, Bujumbura, which is on the shore of the lake, has a drinking water crisis.

The part of Lake Tanganyika on Bujumbura’s shore is too polluted to provide drinking water. The beach is covered in plastic bottles and seaweed. Bujumbura’s drinking water supplies are taken from eight kilometres inside the lake, and it is estimated that at current rates of pollution, the course of drinking water will have to move to 18 kilometres inside the lake by 2020, which is almost at the border of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

In the not-too-distant future, Bujumbura may have to start buying its water supplies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, if the environmental issues cannot be solved. However, it costs money to solve environmental issues, and following civil wars, corruption, lack of education and other troubles, Burundi does not have much money.

Last week Somalia’s members of parliament made a surprise choice of their country’s new president. Instead of picking one of the favoured candidates, they chose a university professor, Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud. Sheikh Ahmed, the incumbent, was soundly defeated in the end, bringing to a close the term of his leadership, which has been beset by allegations of corruption, mismanagement and cronyism.

Professor Mohamoud’s election is seen as a big step forward in the rehabilitation of Somalia. He was one of the founders and dean of SIMAD University in Mogadishu in the 1990s, and has been a civil society activist, part of the Centre for Research and Dialogue, and leader of the Peace and Development Party, as well as co-founder of another political group called The National Partnership for Change.

Professor Mohamoud has stated that his priorities will be peace, human rights and civil liberties. He faces many grave challenges including the ongoing war in the country between al Shabaab forces and the coalition of Somali and Amisom forces. There are plenty of warlords still holding significant power, and corruption is a significant and ongoing problem. The world looks on hopefully.

It was announced yesterday that offshore drilling operations by Pancontinental Oil and Gas near Malindi on the Kenyan coast have been successful in locating deposits of natural gas. The company’s shares surged 70% on the Australian Stock Exchange following the announcement. The discovery follows recent discoveries of oil in Kenya, giving the country the hope of becoming a net energy exporter rather than a heavy importer.

Although several African countries have been exporters of oil and gas for some time, the benefits for Africa have been mixed. In countries like Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea, vast oil wealth has been squandered by political elites, and ordinary citizens have seen few benefits; on occasion ordinary citizens have become worse off while the wealthy few have become even more exceedingly wealthy, and troubles and unrest have followed.

So far most of Africa’s oil has come from Libya, Nigeria, Algeria, Angola and Sudan. Natural gas has come mainly from Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Nigeria. Now, with discoveries of oil in Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia, and with discoveries of substantial quantities of gas in Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, the picture is changing. Good governance will be critical for ensuring that the benefits of the resources are maximised.