One of the leading causes of conflict in the world is food insecurity, according to Rasna Warah in an opinion piece in the Daily Nation. As the shadow of famine grows across the Horn of Africa and with it dependency on handouts from humanitarian agencies, the risk of violent conflict becomes greater. The Sentinel Project for Genocide Prevention lists Kenya as a “situation of concern”, and in May issued a report on Kenya’s genocide risk factors.
Kenya is described as “a society with strained and rivalry-prone inter-ethnic relationships which are exacerbated by severe economic difficulties and political conflict.” The Sentinel Project website goes on to highlight specific political risks in Kenya: “With another national election scheduled for December 2012, there is a high risk [of] further violence which could then escalate into genocide given the right conditions.”
Kenya’s low average age and high unemployment rate – currently around 40% and much higher in particular areas and amongst particular groups – mean that there are a lot of young men who are vulnerable to recruitment by criminal gangs and militias which can offer security, a sense of purpose and the possibility of getting some money. Such gangs and militias can easily engage in violent acts against scapegoat groups such as rival tribes.